Persistence Intelligence Dashboard — Shaw University

Fall 26 Continuing Student Registration / Persistence Tracker

375 of 429 goal 87.4%

Ahead of pace +4 pts vs. same date 2025

Targeted Deadline for GoalAugust 3, 2026

Registered · 375 Gap to goal · 54 Good standing · 322 · At-risk · 53 Full-time: 363 · need 54 to close · 12.6%

Fall 26 Continuing Student Registration by Population Segment

Track A · Persistence Core — Continuing Spring to Fall

Spring 2026 enrolled → Fall

Carries the 429 goal. Spring new-starts + continuing, returning to fall.

375 registered / 429 goal 87.4%

S26 Enrollment Count633

S26 Eligible to Continue633

Registered for Fall 26375

Not registered (Workable)258

Gap to Goal54

Track B · Summer Persistence Continuing S1, S2 to Fall 26

Summer 2026 enrollees

Not load-bearing — pure upside that cushions A-side melt.

78 registered / 100 goal 78.0%

S1, S2 Enrollment Count133

S1, S2 Eligible to Continue deduped95

Registered for Fall 2678

Not registered (Workable)17

Gap to Goal22

Deduped — 38 students enrolled in both Summer I and Summer II are counted once, so the 133 raw term-enrollments resolve to 95 distinct summer students.

Track C · Recovery
Readmit / Return to Learn

F25 enrolled · no S26 enrollment

Stop-out re-enrollment. Separate goal — worked by separate team.

9 registered / 30 goal 30.0%

Readmit/Return Enrollment Count520

Not eligible to return98

Good standing · no bal, min bal, no holds322

Not reg, Good Standing (Workable) NSC-scrubbed304

Recovered to date9

Gap to Goal21

NSC-scrubbed — the recovery list is cross-checked against the National Student Clearinghouse (StudentTracker) to remove students already enrolled at another institution, leaving only those genuinely recoverable to Shaw.

Continuing Student Registration pace vs. last year

% of goal · same-date

2026 actual 2026 projected 2025 (final 103%) Goal line

Barrier taxonomy — the 258 not registered

Raleigh Regular · Jul 24

Barrier	Accountable owner	Students	% of pool
Prior balance over $5,000 / bursar hold	Bursar	80	31%
Academic suspension / dismissal	Registrar · Provost	60	23%
Academic warning (if balance ≤ $5,000, students can register)	Advising	30	12%
Clear to register — balance ≤ $5,000, no suspension	Enrollment	143	55%
Policy: balances ≤ $5,000 no longer block registration · 25 suspended also owe over $5,000 · ≈ $782K owed across the 80 over $5,000

Balance range — the 258 not registered

Raleigh Regular · Jul 24

Balance range	Students
Greater than $5,000	80
$2,501 – $5,000	28
$2,500 or less	57
No balance	89
Credit balance	4
Now eligible on balance (≤ $5,000)	178

Actionable segmentation — the 258

priority order

Segment	Count	Play
A. Clear to register now — no sanction, balance ≤ $5,000	126	Eligible now — no holds. Nudge + register. Fastest wins.
B. Academic warning — workable / can register, balance ≤ $5,000	17	Can register now — pair the nudge with advising / a success plan.
Register-now pool (A + B) = 143 — 2.6× the 54 gap. Separately, 55 (balance over $5,000) and 60 (suspension) cannot register until resolved.

Track B & C — full models

population build · segments · conversion

Track B · Summer Persistence Continuing S1, S2 to Fall 26

Summer 2026 enrollees

Active now — strongest fall-continuation signal you have. Goal is in-term conversion of anyone not yet locked for fall.

Population build

Raw summer enrollees168

− Visiting / transient (credit transfers out) · 42

− Summer completers (graduating) · 18

Returner-eligible108

Already fall-registered79

Not yet registered — workable29

Where the 29 sit · conversion @ 75% (actively engaged)

Segment	n	Conv	Proj
In Track A already — accelerate	17	75%	13
Summer-only — incremental cushion	12	75%	9
Workable upside	29		≈22

Track C · Recovery
Readmit / Return to Learn

F25 enrolled · did not attend S26

Re-enrollment, not persistence — the melt already happened. Separate scoreboard, worked by separate team.

Population build

F25 enrolled, no S26 (raw)374

− NSC: enrolled elsewhere (transferred) · 62

− Graduated / completed after F25 · 8

Workable recovery pool304

By standing · differentiated conversion

Standing	n	Conv	Proj
Good standing · no balance	84	22%	18
Balance / re-enroll hold	118	9%	11
Academic standing (SAP)	39	7%	3
Quiet / no valid contact	63	3%	2
Workable pool	304	~11%	≈34

Locked definitions & governance rules

Expected returners = all spring-enrolled, minus confirmed exits (grads, NSC-verified transfers, terminal completers). Filter run per source population.

Registered = fall registration on file. Operational target adds cleared of holds. Census attendance tracked separately.

One student, one track. Spring + summer = one student (Track A, summer-flagged). A stop-out who re-enrolls in summer is moved to recovered, not chased.

Goal decomposed, not blended. The 429 sits entirely on Track A. B is extra / security; C is a separate recovery goal. No blended rate.

Pace = same-date YoY. Progress judged against last year's percent-of-goal on this calendar date — not against final.

Lift, not gross. Credit claimed against prior-year same-date baseline, never against total registrations.

Built on the persistence framework — friction-removal first, persuasion second.
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